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Future study of the development of artificial intelligence in the Iranian health system (2016–2025): Analyzing trends, possible scenarios, and providing policy solutions
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Cirruse Salehnasab   , Mohammadsaeed Mirzaee , Maryam Seyed-Nezhad , Mohammad Mradi-Joo1 |
| 1- , moradijoo@gmail.com |
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Abstract: (15 Views) |
Background & aim: Artificial Intelligence (AI) as one of the advanced technologies has a high potential for transformation in the health system. However, the development of AI in the Iranian health system faces several challenges that require strategic planning based on futures studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to study the futures of AI development in the Iranian health system through analyzing trends, designing possible scenarios, and providing policy solutions.
Methods: This study was conducted with a futures study approach and a mixed method in three phases. In the first phase, using trend analysis, evidence, documents, and scientific articles published between 2016 and 2025 were reviewed and key trends were identified. Also, at this stage, 29 documents and articles were systematically identified and entered into the analysis process. In the second phase, a three-stage Delphi method was used with the participation of 12 experts in related fields, and an analysis of the mutual effects of factors and the design of four possible scenarios for the development of artificial intelligence until 1410 were carried out. In the third phase, the scenarios were examined from the perspective of content, structural and predictive validity, and a multi-criteria analysis method with feasibility, effectiveness, social acceptance and cost criteria was used to formulate policies. The final validation of the solutions was also carried out in a specialized workshop with the participation of key policymakers.
Results: Analysis of trends showed that the development of artificial intelligence in the Iranian health system is taking shape gradually and in layers, from virtual education and initial technological measures to the establishment of specialized institutions, ethical regulation and the approval of macro-documents in recent years. However, challenges such as weak data infrastructure, institutional fragmentation, lack of specialized human resources and policy incoherence still persist. In the Delphi phase, 28 key factors were identified in five main categories (technological, economic, legal-ethical, socio-cultural, and managerial), from which 14 trends were selected as key factors. Also, the designed scenarios included four possible paths under the titles of “smart prosperity”, “gradual progress”, “redefining health”, and “missed opportunities”, each of which outlines different dimensions of the future based on a combination of policymaking, resources, user acceptance, technology infrastructure, and level of implementation.
Conclusion: The study findings show that the successful development of AI in the Iranian health system requires an integrated approach, long-term policymaking, targeted investment, improving the level of digital readiness, and empowering human resources. Using the designed scenarios can help decision-makers shape a smart and sustainable future in the country’s health sector. |
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| Keywords: Futures Studies, Artificial Intelligence, Health System, Scenario Writing, Iran, Trend Analysis, Delphi, Interaction Analysis |
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2025/08/9 | Accepted: 2026/04/29 | Published: 2026/07/21
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Salehnasab C, Mirzaee M, Seyed-Nezhad M, Mradi-Joo M. Future study of the development of artificial intelligence in the Iranian health system (2016–2025): Analyzing trends, possible scenarios, and providing policy solutions. armaghanj 2026; 31 (3) URL: http://armaghanj.yums.ac.ir/article-1-3863-en.html
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