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:: Volume 27, Issue 2 (3-2022) ::
__Armaghane Danesh__ 2022, 27(2): 207-222 Back to browse issues page
Future study of the elderly population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province up to 1430 horizon and their health costs
Ali Ahmadipoor 1
1- azad tehran markaz , ali.ahmadipoor@chmail.ir
Abstract:   (126 Views)
Abstract
Background and purpose
The population has always been considered as one of the most fundamental issues in policy-making and forward-looking planning. Population futures research is also a process for better decision-making and planning with a view to distant horizons. Futures are broadly related to values, beliefs, and patterns of behavior. One of the major demographic issues, mainly in countries around the world, is the issue of population aging and its consequences. The purpose of this article is to study the level and trend of the population aged 60 and over in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province, the sex ratio of the elderly, the growth of the elderly population, the life expectancy of the elderly, the aging index, the rate, and the dependency ratio, based on possible scenarios to 1430.
 Materials and methods:
At present, Iran is also experiencing the stage of transition of the age structure of the population from youth to old age. Although the elderly population has a small share of the country's population, the growth rate of the elderly population compared to the growth of the total population of the country and predicting an increase in the number and share of the elderly (population 60 years and older) in the coming years, the need Emphasizes forward-looking planning to control issues related to this group of the population. To achieve this goal, to document the population and housing census data of the Statistics Center of Iran in 2016 based on possible scenarios of fertility, migration, and mortality, using a combined method of population forecasting in Spectrum software, the aging status of the population Examined to the horizon of 1430.
 findings:
 Based on the calculations of the probable scenario (total fertility 2.1), important population indicators such as the number of the elderly, aging index, the sex ratio of the elderly, and the dependence ratio of the elderly population in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province for 1430 and 259017 people are estimated at, 81.92, 95, and 25.8 respectively.
 Conclusion:
Due to the rapid pace of declining fertility in Iran over the past two decades, the aging population is expected to accelerate And based on the observed trends in fertility and mortality and a look at the most likely ways to change them in the future, it is estimated that the age structure of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad is aging. In other words, the share of the population in the age group under 30 decreases and the share of the population over the age of 30 increases. It is necessary to pay attention to the age structure of the population in the planning of the province from the population, to consider appropriate structures for the elderly. Findings indicate that with the aging population of the province, the direct costs of treatment due to the presence of the elderly in the community increase annually, so that the community faces heavy costs.structures for the elderly. Findings indicate that as the population of the province ages, the direct costs of treatment due to the presence of the elderly in the community increase annually so that the community faces costly costs.
Keywords: Population of elderly, health, futures studies
Full-Text [PDF 726 kb]   (9 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Statistics
Received: 2021/07/24 | Accepted: 2022/04/3 | Published: 2022/04/3
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ahmadipoor A. Future study of the elderly population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province up to 1430 horizon and their health costs. ارمغان دانش. 2022; 27 (2) :207-222
URL: http://armaghanj.yums.ac.ir/article-1-3129-en.html


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Volume 27, Issue 2 (3-2022) Back to browse issues page
ارمغان دانش Armaghane Danesh
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