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Background & aim: Some epidemiological evidence has shown the relationship between environmental air pollution and adverse health effects. Considering the effect of air pollution on the severity of heart disease the aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of daily air pollution on daily cardiovascular mortality in Ahvaz city.
 
Methods: In the present ecological study conducted in 2018, air pollution data was inquired from the Ahvaz Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The mortality data was collected from the Health Deputy of Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences. Generalized additive models (GAM) was used to analyze the data with different lags of air pollutants for up to 7 days. An increase of 10 units in all pollutants except CO (1 unit) was used to compute the relative risk of deaths.
 
Results: During March 2008 until March 2015, 10625 cardiovascular deaths occurred in Ahwaz, in which 6138 (57.8%) were male. The average number of daily, monthly, seasonal and annual deaths from cardiovascular diseases calculated 4.15, 126.49, 379.46, and 1517.86, respectively. Based on the analysis of the generalized additive model, the strongest correlation between NO₂ and cardiovascular mortality was seen on lag 6, with a relative risk; RR = 1.007 and confidence interval; 95% CI: (1.002-1.012) for NO₂. The correlation coefficient of NO₂ with cardiac death was positive, significant and equal to 0.042 (P-value = 0.034). No significant relationship was found between the O₃, SO₂ and NO pollutants with the number of cardiovascular deaths. The increase in PM₁₀ and CO levels had an inverse impact on the increase of cardiovascular mortality; and RR = 0.998, CI: (0.997-0.999) and RR = 0.989, CI: (0.979-0.999) for them, respectively.
 
Conclusion: The results of this study showed that NO2 air pollutant is associated with increase cardiovascular mortality in Ahvaz. Reduction of environmental air pollution can be effective in reducing mortality from cardiovascular diseases and better life.
 
 

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Background & aim: The difference in the incidence of population transition in the provinces of Iran is accompanied by differences in the indicators of aging in them. The purpose of the present study was to determine the main causes of death of the elderly in the provinces of the country.
 
Methods: The present study was conducted in terms of quantitative method, in terms of applied purpose and in terms of implementation as a secondary analysis in 2021 as well as using death data by age cause during the 2011 to 2017. The cause of death data was taken from the current registration in the Civil Registration Organization and based on the international classification of the cause of death. This data was analyzed by gender and age groups in the elderly population. The Lifespan Age Index (YLL), as a percentage per thousand population, was used to measure the mortality of each disease. The rate of death and the number of years of life lost allow comparison over time, sex and age at the provincial level as standard. The collected data were analyzed using Excel software and drawing appropriate tables and graphs and indicators such as sex ratio, relative difference and age-specific rate.
 
Results: The ratio of elderly deaths to the total number of deaths in the provinces of the country varies from 40 to 72% and displays the difference in the situation of the provinces in the epidemiological transition. The share of causes of death correspondingly varies in the provinces of the country and during the two sexes. In less developed provinces, premature death is more common for men. Deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases are still present in less developed provinces, and the predominant cause of death in the provinces, especially in developed areas, is non-infectious and parasitic diseases.
 
Conclusion: The provinces of the country have different climatic, developmental and demographic conditions that have led to different occurrence of health conditions in them. It is necessary to enter into the aging phase of the population and the prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly, appropriate health policies at the provincial and regional levels in the country to be developed.

 

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Background & aim: Population has always been considered as one of the most fundamental issues in policy-making and futuristic planning. Population futures research is also a process for making better decisions and planning by looking at distant horizons, futures that are broadly related to values, beliefs, and patterns of behavior. One of the major demographic issues, mainly in the world, is the issue of population aging and its consequences. As a result, the purpose of the present study was to determine and study the future study of the elderly population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province up to 2050 and their health costs.
 
Methods: In the present descriptive study conducted in 2019, a documentary study of the general census data of Iran Statistics Center in 2016 based on possible scenarios of fertility, migration and death of Mir using a combined method of forecasting was used. Population was analyzed in Spectrum and Mortpak demographic software and the aging status of the province's population up to 2050 horizon was analyzed.
 
Results: Based on the probabilistic scenario calculations (total fertility 1/2), important population indicators such as number of elderly, aging index and dependence ratio of elderly population in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province for 2050 were estimated at 259017 people, 81.92 and 25.8, respectively. Another finding of the research indicated that from 2016 to 2050, the index of dependency ratio of the elderly will increase relatively much. Accordingly, from 6.8% in 2016 to 26.6% (low growth), 25.8% (medium growth), 25.5% (high growth). The sex ratio of the elderly in the province will reach 95 in 2050, which indicated that the elderly population of the province is moving towards femininity. Life expectancy for the elderly at the age of 60 is also projected at 2330, equal to 23 years. This index has increased significantly compared to 2016. Another finding of the present study revealed that the average direct cost of health is higher for men until about 2025, and after that, due to the increase in older women, the cost of women's health is higher.
 
Conclusion: Considering the rapid pace of declining fertility in Iran over the last two decades, it is predicted that the movement towards population aging will accelerate and based on the observed trends in fertility and mortality and a look at the most likely ways to change them in the future, the age structure was estimated. The population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad is getting older, in other words, the share of the population in the age group under 30 decreases and the share of the population over 30 increases, considering the age structure of the population It is necessary.