:: Volume 27, Issue 2 (3-2022) ::
__Armaghane Danesh__ 2022, 27(2): 207-222 Back to browse issues page
Future Study of the Elderly Population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province Up to the Horizon of 2050 and their Health Costs
A Ahmadipour1, A Pejhan2, M Sharifi3
1- Department of Demography, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran,
2- Department of Social Sciences, Garmsar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Garmsar, Iran
3- Department of Social Sciences, Garmsar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Garmsar, Iran , sharifim@ut.ac.ir
Abstract:   (245 Views)
Background & aim: Population has always been considered as one of the most fundamental issues in policy-making and futuristic planning. Population futures research is also a process for making better decisions and planning by looking at distant horizons, futures that are broadly related to values, beliefs, and patterns of behavior. One of the major demographic issues, mainly in the world, is the issue of population aging and its consequences. As a result, the purpose of the present study was to determine and study the future study of the elderly population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province up to 2050 and their health costs.
Methods: In the present descriptive study conducted in 2019, a documentary study of the general census data of Iran Statistics Center in 2016 based on possible scenarios of fertility, migration and death of Mir using a combined method of forecasting was used. Population was analyzed in Spectrum and Mortpak demographic software and the aging status of the province's population up to 2050 horizon was analyzed.
Results: Based on the probabilistic scenario calculations (total fertility 1/2), important population indicators such as number of elderly, aging index and dependence ratio of elderly population in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province for 2050 were estimated at 259017 people, 81.92 and 25.8, respectively. Another finding of the research indicated that from 2016 to 2050, the index of dependency ratio of the elderly will increase relatively much. Accordingly, from 6.8% in 2016 to 26.6% (low growth), 25.8% (medium growth), 25.5% (high growth). The sex ratio of the elderly in the province will reach 95 in 2050, which indicated that the elderly population of the province is moving towards femininity. Life expectancy for the elderly at the age of 60 is also projected at 2330, equal to 23 years. This index has increased significantly compared to 2016. Another finding of the present study revealed that the average direct cost of health is higher for men until about 2025, and after that, due to the increase in older women, the cost of women's health is higher.
Conclusion: Considering the rapid pace of declining fertility in Iran over the last two decades, it is predicted that the movement towards population aging will accelerate and based on the observed trends in fertility and mortality and a look at the most likely ways to change them in the future, the age structure was estimated. The population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad is getting older, in other words, the share of the population in the age group under 30 decreases and the share of the population over 30 increases, considering the age structure of the population It is necessary.
Keywords: Population Prediction, Aging, Population, Health, Futurology
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: Statistics
Received: 2021/07/24 | Accepted: 2022/04/3 | Published: 2022/04/3

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Volume 27, Issue 2 (3-2022) Back to browse issues page